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2011/04/05

Risk Sharing and Minimizing in Modern Rep-Manufacturer Relationship

Rep and Manufacturer business relationship dates to medieval times in Europe. Ever since medieval hand workers produced more than local market could bear, they needed a rep who would bring their product to most remote places on earth. However the Rep could not carry the risk of taking goods and losing them to robbers or not being able to sell them to local resellers. Thus came the need for risk management on both sides. Surely risks did have change, and profoundly so, but not the need for them even so risk management became a tool to win the edge over the competition.

From capitalization point of view a Rep is a midget, when comparing him to the manufacturer. Thus Manufacturer is trying to strengthen his supply chain by adding a Distributor in between them. Distributor carries hundreds of product lines which mitigates his risk, should some part of their business falter on the market. They muscle themselves for large orders and care little for smaller opportunities. They leave Rep with smallish sizes of business opportunities, marginalized completely, especially during recessions. They get paid commissions, several times smaller than Distributors.

Manufacturer often does not notice the down side of this business model is under-performing in revenues, instability in supply chain, due to exceedingly high risk in this channel often forced us to cut loses and abandon the opportunity altogether.

1 Classic Rep-Manufacturer model with unmitigated risk for the Rep who is promised relatively large reward at the end of the project. Manufacturer risks nothing until he gets the purchase order. Risk for Rep is high, cash outlay also, often difference to commission is v. small.
US association MANA gathering Reps under one umbrella has tried for several years to introduce its business model back to Europe, has finally given up for no interest from European Reps.

2 Below is the older and stabler version, prevalent in Europe. In this model Vendor is engaging financially into the project at early stage, building up his stake in the project. Once that happens, he is more responsive to any need for technical support during testing and certification.

This adds to mutual dependence and as risk is shared by both, the venture is geared for higher revenues than in the previous model.
To illustrate the previous model: a project value of $K million, the Rep must invest up to $x (where $x is his commission) to win the project and in the end is being paid the $x commission. Not a good business at all, no profit.

He is forced to save on every expense to keep himself profitable, at the expense of his performance to his loss and in greater value loss to Vendor. He has to play several vendors at the same time to spread his risk thus his loyalty is split and dedication is nil, vendors must close the deal himlesf.

Contrary to (No.1), the old Rep model (No.2) requires Rep to invest only $0.4x of his own, he gets help from Vendor of $0.6x which is commission in advance, allowing him to work at full capacity, and in the end Rep gets the rest of his commission of $0.4 and 100% on ROI. It changes relationships and profitability dramatically, at the same cash flow!

Competition is so fierce right now that a difference of several percentage points in risk level or revenue can mean either loss or win against competitors.

Vendor pays the same commission in the end, but Rep, risking less is performing much better and produces more. Rep is following project over the entire Customer Journey. Rep smoothens out any possible wrinkles during production, delivery, training and installation.

These Reps are almost all exclusive and experience shows it is not unusual to have several generations of Rep working with the same vendor.

By Stefan F. Baginski
Lugano, April 5, 2011
© Copyright to @sbaginski22

2011/03/29

Social Networking hype

Have you hear the news? A german media consulting company has just published new and exciting numbers for SocialMedia in Business. The use of Facebook has raised to over 20 million. Only in Düsseldorf the registered 515k users. I agree the city is very rich, is a center for Japanese and Korean diaspora in Europe. All fine, but the city has 590k population, surely some may have double accounts, but it means that all adults do use Facebook. Not so sure.

Myself I use some of these social media mainly for experimental use. I have made well over 500 twitts, am following some 130 twitters and my own following gyrates at about 100 followers. My problem is: how do I converge my work (all those twitts) into useful business audience. Mind you I follow only reputable, professional sources I mostly know and trust. My followers are mainly companies or individuals moonlighting perhaps but still interest is to furthers it business goals.
In effect we all try to figure out how this can help us during those hard times to grow businesses.

The use of social networks in business is still very questionable. Speaking not only form my own experience. Gartner recently announced that over 70% of all business social media projects are to fail. Miserably. Based on hype goals are placed to high, bound to fail. Standard prescription. I have published the same in my blog: http://sfbaginski.wordpress.com/2011/01/09/gartner-is-predicting-up-to-70-of-social-media-projects-to-fail-in-2011/

Judging from my experience plus discussions with over 25 of my business executive partners, the jury is: wait until next interrupting technology would allow for easy convergence of limited format chats. Until there is a clear and secure way to converge networked contacts into interested parties, it is not going to work. Just being there is not enough.
There is another threat to this branch of industry and that is potential for another Dot.com bubble. With Facebook valued as a billion dollar company is bigger than the biggest bank in Switzerland whose capitalization is about 60% of Facebook's.

Read at http://pressetext.com/news/110225020 for the article on Web 2.0 Bubble potential. Myself I am skeptical about drawing parallels between 2001 and 2011. Certainly in 2000 there were altogether 250 million. user in total, now we have over 2 billion users. Spreading this risk over larger sample reduces the risk significantly. On the other hand we observe that economy in general still suffers, with structural deficiency within the system. In States there is deficit and in EU currency crisis, sovereign defaults in Greece, Ireland, Island, and now Portugal. Lat year out of 27 economies only Poland was holding itself in the black.

All in all, I see the possibility for growth, in some sectors rather steep one, but remain skeptic to exalted growth numbers geared purely to crank the economy, jump start it and such. If somethings is too good to be true, it probably is. Nothing new but I advise caution.

2011/03/08

Embedded World 2011 edition

The newest event from Nürnberg is Embedded World (www.embeddedworld.de) and it is done, closed another biggest event in the world gathering embedded industry professionals and business people. It was a bit bigger than last year by about 30 exhibitors (some 5% growth over past year). This would confirm progress after the crisis, but crisis still lingers on the lips of many attendees. The main question was "are we over the worst this time around?" That was followed by "what trends do we see to appear on the horizon?"
Neither of them was really and honestly answered with definite yes! Maybe who was there, how big was the booth, and other indicators would lead us with correct valuation of the show. Interesting to observe was that Microsoft with its Embedded product range was located in hall 10 next to QNX a real time OS vendor from Canada, whose big booth full of apps from Partners have made respectful challenge to that of neighbouring MS.

Lots of friends I meat asked me about what did I notice to be novel, creative, outstanding. To be honest I did say, "no". The new pin connectors with flat pads, some VPX board from Kontron, new cPCI, every year Barbara Schmitz is introducing something elegant. Im my view this show was "business almost as usual", next year should be even better. There is a room from growth.
In the Embedded market new opportunities are booming. Those who have noticed, big changes in government, like Ireland, Egypt, even new lady President in Brazil, brought new civil servants, new layer with people distributing money from government kofers. This amounts for huge earthquake which destroyed "mafia structures" which for years sucked on big projects. For obvious reasons I shall refrain from naming them, mostly european and american conglomerates have to reconnect to new ruling elite. This may take some time to rebuild to former arrangements. Companies offering Open Systems, based on open standards have their chance to appeal and save governments some money.

2011/01/22

IC capacity use will forecast the near future of electronics

Many pundits are looking to crystal ball to predict the future of IC industry for next few years. IC business is notorious for its cylic ups and downs. Superimposed on those cycles are other business influences like markets changes, financial crises etc.
To see really what is coming to us is to look at Capacity Utilization, and investments in CU over the past 3 years and in the next 3 more. According to IC Insights investment in 2010 grew by 98% against 2009, the revenues grew by only 16% what is below the average of 20% which is by many a minimum revenues growth to sustainable development in the industry. In 2011 this investment would grow only by 6% and in 2012 by 12%. This chronic under-invesment will produce effects not entirely desirable. Not until new fabs would come into operation in 2014 we should experience often acute shortages, affecting many smaller vendors.

Semicon equipment manufacturers who use large chunk of ICs from the world production would sell less and buy less electronic to support and control such equipment. We would see then shortages, allocation lists would continue, but they would be less severe if investment in IC production would keep up with the tradition. The financial crisis is still affecting most of us and should continue so in the next year.

2010/11/20

Antimatter atoms produced and trapped at CERN

PR21.10 - 17.11.2010


Geneva, 17 November 2011. The ALPHA experiment at CERN* has taken an important step forward in developing techniques to understand one of the Universe’s open questions: is there a difference between matter and antimatter? In a paper published in Nature today, the collaboration shows that it has successfully produced and trapped atoms of antihydrogen. This development opens the path to new ways of making detailed measurements of antihydrogen, which will in turn allow scientists to compare matter and antimatter.



Antimatter – or the lack of it – remains one of the biggest mysteries of science. Matter and its counterpart are identical except for opposite charge, and they annihilate when they meet. At the Big Bang, matter and antimatter should have been produced in equal amounts. However, we know that our world is made up of matter: antimatter seems to have disappeared. To find out what has happened to it, scientists employ a range of methods to investigate whether a tiny difference in the properties of matter and antimatter could point towards an explanation.



One of these methods is to take one of the best-known systems in physics, the hydrogen atom, which is made of one proton and one electron, and check whether its antimatter counterpart, antihydrogen, consisting of an antiproton and a positron, behaves in the same way. CERN is the only laboratory in the world with a dedicated low-energy antiproton facility where this research can be carried out.



The antihydrogen programme goes back a long way. In 1995, the first nine atoms of man-made antihydrogen were produced at CERN. Then, in 2002, the ATHENA and ATRAP experiments showed that it was possible to produce antihydrogen in large quantities, opening up the possibility of conducting detailed studies. The new result from ALPHA is the latest step in this journey.



Antihydrogen atoms are produced in a vacuum at CERN, but are nevertheless surrounded by normal matter. Because matter and antimatter annihilate when they meet, the antihydrogen atoms have a very short life expectancy. This can be extended, however, by using strong and complex magnetic fields to trap them and thus prevent them from coming into contact with matter. The ALPHA experiment has shown that it is possible to hold on to atoms of antihydrogen in this way for about a tenth of a second: easily long enough to study them. Of the many thousands of antiatoms the experiment has created, ALPHA’s latest paper reports that 38 have been trapped for long enough to study.



"For reasons that no one yet understands, nature ruled out antimatter. It is thus very rewarding, and a bit overwhelming, to look at the ALPHA device and know that it contains stable, neutral atoms of antimatter,” said Jeffrey Hangst of Aarhus University, Denmark, spokesman of the ALPHA collaboration. “This inspires us to work that much harder to see if antimatter holds some secret.”



In another recent development in CERN’s antimatter programme, the ASACUSA experiment has demonstrated a new technique for producing antihydrogen atoms. In a paper soon to appear in Physical Review Letters, the collaboration reports success in producing antihydrogen in a so-called Cusp trap, an essential precursor to making a beam. ASACUSA plans to develop this technique to the point at which beams of sufficient intensity will survive for long enough to be studied.



“With two alternative methods of producing and eventually studying antihydrogen, antimatter will not be able to hide its properties from us much longer,” said Yasunori Yamazaki of Japan’s RIKEN research centre and a member of the ASACUSA collaboration. “There’s still some way to go, but we’re very happy to see how well this technique works.”



“These are significant steps in antimatter research,” said CERN Director General Rolf Heuer, “and an important part of the very broad research programme at CERN.”



Full information about the ASACUSA approach will be made available when the paper is published.





For further information on the ALPHA experiment, please read here:

http://cerncourier.com/cws/article/cern/30577



Pictures available here:

http://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1307522



Footage available here:

http://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1307524



Contacts:

- CERN Press Office

press.office@cern.ch

+41 22 767 34 32

+41 22 767 63 33



- Jeffrey Hangst, ALPHA experiment spokesperson

+41 76 487 45 89



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research, is the world's leading laboratory for particle physics. It has its headquarters in Geneva. At present, its Member States are Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. India, Israel, Japan, the Russian Federation, the United States of America, Turkey, the European Commission and UNESCO have Observer status.




If you would rather not receive future communications from CERN - European Organization for Nuclear Research, let us know by clicking here.
CERN - European Organization for Nuclear Research, CERN CH-1211, Genève 23, Switzerland

2010/11/17

Another comment from Stephan Janouch on Automotive

wieder einmal ist ein Deutscher beim Schnellfahren ganz vorne mit dabei. Ich meine damit allerdings nicht unseren Formel-1-Weltmeister Sebastian Vettel, sondern Hansjörg von Gemmingen.

Der Name sagt Ihnen nichts? Kein Wunder, denn von Gemmingen ist nicht etwa Rennfahrer, sondern Aktienhändler. Und gleichzeitig einer der ersten Besitzer eines Tesla Roadsters in Europa. Im letzten Jahr hat er mit seinem Elektrogeschoss mehr als 65.000 km zurückgelegt - mehr als jeder andere Tesla-Fahrer in Europa.
Da das ganze relativ unspektakulär über die Bühne ging, ist man geneigt zu vermuten, dass die Kalifornier die ersten Kinderkrankheiten überwunden haben; vielleicht auch dank der Hilfe von Daimler und Toyota, die sich mittlerweile im Schulterschluss mit Tesla-Chef Elon Musk üben.

Erwachsen werden soll übrigens auch der 3. Elektronik automotive congress, der am 12. Mai 2011 in Ludwigsburg stattfinden wird. Noch haben Sie die Chance, sich daran zu beteiligen. Die Einreichungsfrist für Papers endet nächste Woche!


Stephan Janouch