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2009/03/23

EDN has published and interesting article on FPGA, the novelty in it is that in times of economic downturn FPGA technology provides shorter development time, easier updates and fight against product obsolescence. The link is to be fair enclosed: http://www.edn.com/article/CA6643363.html?nid=2431&rid=8663980

For full feature please click on the link.

For us working with Acromag, we knew that FPGA features lend themselves very well to shorter time-to-market and lower cost. However the methodology is varied and requires preparation before attacking new project using FPGA.

2009/03/12

Back to Business Excellence, this time in 2009

The whole financial systems crisis has brought misery to the economy as a whole. The Wall Street crisis has done the biggest crisis to the Main Street since the end of World War II, and that across the world.

The problem started, most would agree, with bursting bubble of real estate in the US. Prices started to drop in most areas making leveraged properties unsustainable. This shook the Fannie Mae and Freddy Mack mortgage guarantors in process that have spread to banking system and especially to investment banking. Banks stopped trading with each other. Short on cash, businesses close left and right shedding people in the same process.
We could spend time in front of media reading, watching and listening to talking heads analysing how it all came about to us. The premise is “we should have known that this is coming” and were supposed to “do something about it”.

Here lies the problem, all the rescuing should be done by politicians, who have no tools to influence the situation much other than cut taxes, throw money at the economy, and new regulations at industry as a whole and at financial sector in particular. Some could still play with state deficit, or exchange rates (if the country is not part of $ or € trade zone).

In the mean time politicians from Mr. Brown to Mr. Obama and many others mix intervention in economy with improving social justice as far as bonuses and pay packages are concerned. One could hardly improve the former not to mention the latter. Action calls for coordinated effort, but protectionism is rife. Size of financial packages ranges from +800 billion US$ in USA to only +20 billion € in Germany (in 2009).

Nevertheless the causes of current situation, the results are devastating, millions of people loose and lost their jobs. Companies are closing or calling Chapter 11 protection law. That affected even such IT flagships like Nortel Telecoms. Another victim is Qimoda. Banks in Germany lost their capital in droves, their shares are worth now:

Deutsche Bank lost 64% of its value
Allianz/Dresdner Bank lost 83%
Commerzbank lost 88% of its value!

What caused the mess was Greed, Arrogance and shear Herd Instinct. Interesting take was mentioned by Bill Clinton, who in Davos, brought up the loose billions of $ that looked for ways of making revenues after the dot.Com Economy busted in 2001. The Federal Reserve set the interest rates so low, that investors fled from savings Banking into better ways of making profit. And especially banks obliged. Subprime rate Mortgages were only the simplest leveraging instruments offered to investors at the time. Instruments became more and more leveraged none knows how much funds are there tied up. To some even pyramid schemes of Madoff kind were legit business models. All seem unreasonable now.


In the Eye of a Storm

As Main Street business sheds personnel, lowers costs, and in panic adopts survival mode things started to look really bad. It supposed to be especially bad for the finance, automotive and semiconductor industries. All of them have formidable lobbies that have connections to politicians, to media and in case of automobile industry, to strong labour unions.

This aspect of unions and politicians together made an explosive mixture of Stimuli to business and at the same time a run with the Social Justice issues, like pay and bonuses to bosses. This is not very good idea to mix them now. Loses started with run on Northern Rock, Lehman Brothers etc. UBS bank has written off some 40 billion of CHF, with losses at Credit Suisse it makes loses of some 10% of Switzerland GDP.

European Union with its strong € should act in coordination uncommon at the times of distress. Historically France was devaluating Franc, increase deficit and went on with business. Germany acting cautiously, would rather wait until US economy picks up lifting German economy on its export trade. This makes Ms. Merkel slow in response for the taste of like Mr. Sarkozy. Who prized quickly Britain for exemplary rescue package, but we know it for a fact now it is not enough. His recent prank was to loan over €6 billion to his auto industry, provided they don’t move out to Czech Republic. Russia, smarting from its default in the ‘90s, passed emergency law preventing run on its banks, and in Davos Mr. Putin has forewarned everyone not to renationalize economies, because there were there before with Gorbachev. Incidentally, the US that has bailed out its banking sector, thus renationalizing banks with taxpayer’s money going in direction Putin was warning not to go. The excuse and at the same time the assurance to US taxpayers was that during the 30’s many houses were repurchased by the state and eventually refloated back to market after economy has picked up again. Hopefully this would happen again.
Throwing good moneys at ailing businesses only prolongs their demise. Only no one has the guts to say that to the banking bosses. The Economist once said that “banking business is a hat trick business” it all depends on CONFIDENCE. And we no longer have that confidence our in banking system.


The Embedded Systems Industry

Certainly, Embedded Industry is suffering recently too, but it seem a secondary effect caused rather by a cash flow problems rather than market collapse. Orders from Automotive Industry have indeed sharply shrunk to a trickle starting in September 2008, but slowly picking up again in January 2009.
The fact to the matter is that Embedded Industry depends more on Ideas than on cash. There are two types of Embedded Enterprises: small to medium size, that success depends on hard work and money from the market reinvested into new and creative products. You could mention here Acromag Incorporated (www.acromag.com). A very successful company with around 70% of its business coming mainly from Aerospace industries or from Governments who are very steady Customers.
The other type is a large vendor of Embedded Products, with markets all over the world, good product range, effective marketing and Channel structure. These companies are flush with funds, and we mean CASH, buying technology from smaller companies.

The nature of Embedded Systems is an essentially based on clever ideas derived by usually by its own R&D departments or as in many smaller enterprises by its Owner, Evangelist, CTO or a leading engineer. Such companies typically grow in organic way, have their costs already tuned up to the business, personnel are being decently compensated but with out undue perks. I bet most of these companies continue to reinvest most of revenues back into business and their cost structure is one of the lowest in business. They usually do not pay dividends, and their access to investment capital is very difficult making them depend on their own ingenuity and they drive technology driven markets. They are small, nimble and innovative. They do not invest in market capture, as they have no such resources or time. They need to sell as much as possible of their new products, before End User turns to large vendors for economies of scale pricing.
Large vendors sit on their cash war chests, gobble smaller, creative and nimble outfits of their promising technologies and grow their market share. Recent 12 months saw disappearance of such known if not famous companies like SBS Computer, VMetro, Thales Computers or VSystems. Even Intel has sold its server business to Kontron.

Researching this article the writer interviewed over 30 executives in Embedded Industry. Most were very cautious and at the same time rather upbeat. Their outlook seemed positive and the only restriction on being openly optimistic was the fact that lots of moneys have disappeared from the economy in general and effect of it must somehow get to each of us individually.

Ulrich Gehrmann, Kontron Chairman was very positive but besides giving a preliminary data from 2008, wanted to turn our attention to a press conference on March 24 to reveal more. He said: Sales in 2008 rose by around 11% year-on-year to approximately EUR 495 million (previous year: EUR 446.5 million). This growth is considerably higher when adjusted for currency effects. In particular, Q4 sales of around EUR 139 million represented a new record level. This corresponds to nominal growth of approximately 13% compared with the same period of the previous year (EUR 123.9 million). The order book as of the year-end also remained at a high level of over EUR 290 million (previous year: EUR 268 million).

Siemens, Germany has also posted a growth in Sales during the 2008, by over 6.6% over the year 2007.

Joseph Primeau, Sales Director at Acromag, a Wixom, Michigan based company, has declined to give total sales figures for neither of 2008 nor 2007. His company, being in private hands refrains to report its figures, but he said: “considering the current financial situation world wide, we are cautiously optimistic and we look forward to a challenging and potentially rewarding year 2009. It is true that some industries suffer economically but we are staying with them along and would continue on their projects as soon as they are ready”.

Back to Normality

After some chatting about business most my executives were easy to admit: we need to have more CONFIDENCE in the economy and we all seem to long for NORMALITY again. Let us get back to what we do best. We develop and propagate most modern technologies in the embedded business, let us talk to our customers. They need our systems in Infrastructure, Utilities, Energy, Transportation, and Communication and in just about any branch of economy where our products are being utilized. Embedded Systems keep our economy running, they do it under the water line, invisibly, quietly and very reliably. We are in every building, every bridge, highway, tunnel, train, bus and so on. We could not move without traffic lights, ventilation and heating based on Embedded Technologies. Such products are needed in huge quantities, and since system requirements keep piling up, every couple of years we must replace and upgrade them anew.
Our industry has no lobby like the banks, aerospace and automobiles. We have no voice in parliaments, have poor access to media. But we employ large number of engineers, programmers, highly qualified personnel with their families, children.

Those who started their businesses after the Third Oil Shock of the 70’s, remember the “In Search of Excellence” book that appeared in the 80’s on the desks of every business manager and gave them a sense of direction to Excel in Customer Satisfaction. That is why each business strives to.
Back to Normality is the word for today. And we need to get back to Excellence like the title of the popular self-improvement book was calling us to aim back at Excellence in what we do. Let us do what we do best: Innovation in Embedded Systems. We won’t be mentioning finances.


S.baginski@bluewin.ch