Amateur investors like to think that by paying close attention to the
economic news, they can invest at the right time and place. However, a
careful analysis of the past reveals otherwise. Because the savviest
(and therefore biggest) investors are always looking six to nine
months ahead, and because their money is what really moves individual
stocks, the action of certain stocks tend to reflect the news that
you’ll read six to nine months from now. For example, just think back
to March 2009, when the market blasted off with a 70% rise from
multi-year lows. What were the headlines telling you last March? That
the US financial system was in danger of falling apart! The world was
facing depression and that the collapse of the world economy was
imminent! Ah, but smart investors were buying, and if you followed
their lead, as we did, you did pretty well in 2009. In fact, we made
113% for the whole of last year including the nasty bit at the front.
The recent correction has everyone worried again. Most importantly,
the long bull market remains intact regardless of how you look at it.
So, while the world is worried about the headlines, “Greek Debt” –
“Chinese Growth Possibly Slowing” – “US Unemployment at Record
Levels”, the fact remains, companies are still reporting great
results, 80% of US companies have beaten analyst’s “optimistic”
estimates. What’s more, most companies are telling us business is
improving – particularly, Technology.
As for the current “correction”? Well, regardless of what journalists,
market pessimists and doom and gloomers will tell you, this is a
“garden variety” standard 10% correction we are having. It will end
very soon when enough amateur investors dump their stocks in total
despair. Markets turn when people stop selling, not when people start
buying. You have to wait until enough pessimism has been passed around
and people give up on the market. We are close to that point now.
Back in March 2009, when the market bounced, a lot of the people
talking now were saying things like, “don’t trust this rally”,
“sucker’s rally”, “the problems will get worse” and the end result was
they were 100% wrong. It was without a doubt probably one of the best
stock buying opportunities you’ll ever see. The headlines are again
trying to frighten you out of the stock market, and they’ll probably
succeed, and the professional investors will once again swoop down and
buy your shares. You’ll be happy they did too, until the market
bounces and you have that Homer Simpson “Doh!” moment, much like the
one so many people who sold back in February and March 2009 when they
watched the market just climb and climb in 2009. Back then I stopped
“shorting the market” with my Switch Strategy on February 21 and the
next week started aggressively buying stocks, for example Lynas for
$0.13 which is now $0.53 and Intuitive Surgical for $93.00 which is
now $322.00. You see I knew that the market would turn, and told my
subscribers it would, and it did. Regardless of “end of the world”
headlines, the selloff just didn’t make sense to me. On reflection, it
didn’t to anybody else either.
So, when will the current “correction” end? I can’t say, but it could
be a couple of days, a week, or two weeks, but it will end and today’s
prices will seem bargains and you’ll be kicking yourself. But hey,
that’s normal for human beings, our fear will always get in the way of
our common sense.
The secret to stock market success is not reading today’s headlines,
but jumping 6 months ahead in time and imagining what the “state of
play” will be then. And how do we know that? Listen to the guys
“running” the economy, not the idiot politicians (and boy, aren’t some
of them goons?), the guys running the “real economy” are the business
owners and CEOs of big companies and they are all telling us one thing
– Profits are growing and the outlook for business is good. Share
prices will eventually follow the company earnings. Stock prices will
be higher in a year from now and this current correction is an
opportunity to buy shares in companies whose profits and sales are
growing much faster than even the analysts expected, which is why the
Trident Confidential is investing in them. That’s all you need to
know.
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