Many pundits are looking to crystal ball to predict the future of IC industry for next few years. IC business is notorious for its cylic ups and downs. Superimposed on those cycles are other business influences like markets changes, financial crises etc.
To see really what is coming to us is to look at Capacity Utilization, and investments in CU over the past 3 years and in the next 3 more. According to IC Insights investment in 2010 grew by 98% against 2009, the revenues grew by only 16% what is below the average of 20% which is by many a minimum revenues growth to sustainable development in the industry. In 2011 this investment would grow only by 6% and in 2012 by 12%. This chronic under-invesment will produce effects not entirely desirable. Not until new fabs would come into operation in 2014 we should experience often acute shortages, affecting many smaller vendors.
Semicon equipment manufacturers who use large chunk of ICs from the world production would sell less and buy less electronic to support and control such equipment. We would see then shortages, allocation lists would continue, but they would be less severe if investment in IC production would keep up with the tradition. The financial crisis is still affecting most of us and should continue so in the next year.
